We Can Do This---Midterms Quickly Approaching Very Strongly
The Antidote to ICE and Greenland (and Qatar Force One, and Birthday Military Parades, and East Wing Demolition, and...)
Two headscratchers in January 2026 are WHY does the stock market stay at its record high given Trump’s madness and WHY does the slim House majority remain obedient to our recent Nobel Prize winner? My expert analysis—-those are headscratchers, all right.
No matter. The Democrats can and should win big on November 3, a mere 287 days from this writing. 435 voting House seats will be on the ballot, with the GOP currently holding a 5-seat 218-213 majority, and 4 vacant seats. We can take encouragement from the very close 2024 races listed below. The 20 closest House races split 12 to the Democrats and 8 to Republicans, with the winning margins ranging from 187 to 11,256 votes, and averaging 6,135 votes or 1.7% of the votes cast. The range of voter turnout is shocking, from 200,000 in Texas 34th to 431,000 in Arizona 6th, and averaged 356,000.
If the 4 vacant seats are filled with 2 GOP and 2 Democrat hold-the-seat replacements, Democrats would only need to win and flip 3 of those 8 close 2024 GOP wins in order to flip the House (all other seats being retained by incumbent party).
Expect 9 months of gerrymandering and voter suppression, but stay committed to getting out the primary and general election votes. Those three closest GOP wins in November 2024 were by an average 2,800 votes or less than 1% of the votes cast. Nobody gets a pass, of course. We need Democrats and Independents out in force, to nominate strong candidates in the spring primaries and take them to victory on November 3. Flipping the House may come down to fewer than 10,000 votes nationwide, but we need a very patriotic turnout to hold our seats, win the closest contests, and run up the score with a robust Democratic majority.